In all the recent polls Barack Obama is surging ahead among voters of all demographics. The only demographic in which he needs to catch up is among women voters. He has appeal to younger voters who generally do not vote; hopefully they get excited enough this time to show up at the polls. Hillary’s camp must be concerned about how quickly he is surging ahead. Most people do not want to know more about Hillary. They have made up their mind. There are very few minds she can sway between now and the election. Barack Obama has been in the national politics for a brief two years; yet he was the most sought after campaigner for the 2006 election. That speaks of his ability to connect with voters and the positive energy he can bring to a candidate’s campaign. In spite of being one of the front runners in the democratic field many people want to know more about him. What this says is that there are a good number of people who can be swayed into voting for him. There is a certain segment of people who dislike Hillary so much that they say they would not consider voting for her. Obama on the other hand does not have any substantial segments that dislike him strongly. That is a huge plus for Obama. Most voters never get to meet a candidate in person. The camera needs to love them first. That love translates to likability among voters. Obama is great on television and on stage when he is talking to an audience. He is connecting to the audience and to the camera. Hillary on the other hand appears too calculated on TV. Even her advisers appear robotic on TV. She appears to be pandering to the right and the left and too stubborn on the war. She is not ready to admit that she lacked judgment when she voted to authorize the use of force. I don’t think the democratic primary voters are in love with that position. Her numbers are where they are mainly because of name recognition and inevitability factor which made voters think that she is the person who can raise enough money to win the general by bombarding the air waves. Since Obama announced on Feb 10th people are getting to know him and his popularity is rising. He is able to get people excited and interested at the same time. He is articulate and people have started feeling that he is a viable candidate. He is also demonstrating considerable fund raising potential and this would make clear to primary voters that Hillary is not inevitable.

Obama can even sway disenchanted republican moderates ; Hillary on the other hand will not have that appeal because of her soap opera family life with Bill. I have seen lot of excitement on the internet for Obama which is similar to what Howard Dean generated in 2004; what is different with Obama is that he is viable in addition to being exciting. The right wing hacks are trying their utmost to derail Obama but all their stunts are just raising his appeal. The right’s obsession with Obama only bolsters the reality to democratic voters that they are scared of him; they are not piling on false stories on long shots like Biden, Kucinich etc.

I watched Obama on Oprah when he promoted his book “The Audacity of Hope” and he was charming as ever; his wife Michelle was also very impressive. Oprah seemed to like him and I think she is on his side. If he can win over Oprah the rest of the country will not be far behind.

Personality has a big role in winning elections. I can’t believe that Bush had personality; in his case fear played a bigger role than charm. John Kerry was so nuanced on the central issue which was the war in Iraq and Afghanistan that people felt uncertain about the country’s direction in his hands. John Kerry’s stiff persona added to his lack of appeal among swing voters. At least there were swing voters considering to vote for John Kerry; in Hillary’s case I think they are just not there. Obama’s appeal and charm would be really crucial in swaying these swing voters. He does not have baggage like Hillary; it will be a fresh start away from the Bush, Clinton dynasty. Hillary supporters often say that she has the best political mind, President Bill Clinton on her side. I consider Bill Clinton to be charmer number one but every time he is out with her it reinforces that Hillary is no Bill Clinton. He overshadows her in every situation. He is just too big; no matter what the situation is if he is there, all eyes will be on him. Nobody can think of Hillary without having Bill Clinton in the background of their thoughts. I think lot of her support is based on affection and nostalgia democrats feel for Bill Clinton. As people realize that they are voting for Hillary and not for Bill, my guess is that her support will further erode.

The 2008 race has started so early mainly because more than half the country just wants the Bush presidency to be over. Looking ahead to the next election is like waving good-bye to the Bush years and that is very comforting to people. In an amazing poll that was mentioned on Meet the Press said that more than 75% of the people polled were paying close attention to the 2008 race. This indicates that people are desperate for change and I think Obama could possibly be the guy to bring it.

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This entry was posted on Sunday, March 11th, 2007 at 5:08 pm and is filed under Politics, 2008 Race. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.